Biogen Inc

BIIB: NASDAQ

Biogen is an American multinational biopharmaceutical company, which engages in discovering, developing, and delivering therapies for neurodegenerative diseases, as well as neurological disease. The company was founded in 1978, and based in Cambridge, MA.[1]

Investment thesis

Biogen makes $9 billion a year in revenue from its multiple sclerosis (MS) business,[2] and treats 38% of all patients with the disease.[3] We believe Spinraza, one of the company’s other key drugs used for muscular atrophy, will be a multi-billion dollar drug. As of the 4th quarter 2017, it was tracking to do $1 billion in run-rate sales,[4] and by 2021 is expected to do $2.1 billion in sales.[5] We believe the Spinraza drug is not being valued by the market, as well as the company’s pipeline of other drugs in development, and $7 billion in cash on the balance sheet.[6]

Confirmation through research

Looking at data, Spinraza has shown efficacy when used early in patients,[7] and thus we believe growth in infants should continue to ramp. The Alzheimer drugs, which are part of the company’s pipeline, are the only Alzheimer’s drugs with data that shows they reduce plaques and improve cognition of patients in a trial.[8] We believe there are other drugs in the pipeline which will also drive the business. Outside of that, we believe the company will use its $7 billion in cash, and free cash flow in the coming years, to add to their pipeline through acquisitions and partnerships.

Variant Perception

We believe that the MS business should continue to do well. We also believe that the market is not assigning fair value to the other drug businesses Biogen has, Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drugs potential, the potential of other drugs in the pipeline outside of Alzheimer’s, the free cash flow the business generates, and the cash on the balance sheet.